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. The Asian financial crisis and the debt crisis in Argentina,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, as credit expansion in both regions hit immunized, afraid of excessive bank lending, consumers do not want to over-borrowing, so when a crisis occurs without their significant bad debt,UGG ブーツ 正規品, relatively sound banking system. Instead, two years did not happen debt crisis is the direct beneficiaries of EU enlargement in Eastern Europe, the excessive borrowing on a hit and fell, caught in the debt trap. The financial crisis,アグ モカシン, economic fundamentals in Asia and Latin American countries without significant deterioration of their currency to the basic stability of the currency, emerging currencies when the dollar is also greatly appreciated. Exchange rate stability, the stability of inflation; inflation steady, then interest rates steady; interest rates steady, the economy and employment stability. Thus create a virtuous cycle of the economy. Of course,UGG ブーツ 人気, the rapid rebound in commodity prices, but also save a number dependent on commodity exports this financial crisis,UGG ブーツ 正規品, the economic fundamentals in Asia and Latin American countries without significant deterioration of their currencies to the basic stability of the currency when the dollar is also emerging currencies substantial appreciation. Exchange rate stability,UGG ブーツ 人気,UGG ブーツ 店舗, the stability of inflation; inflation steady, then interest rates steady; interest rates steady, the economy and employment stability. Thus create a virtuous cycle of the economy. Of course, the rapid rebound in commodity prices, but also save a number of emerging countries dependent on commodity exports. The overall economic recovery in emerging countries,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, much better than the developed countries. Industrial production in emerging countries has been restored to 5% growth, while developed countries have contracted by 8%; retail sales growth in emerging countries has exceeded pre-Lehman levels, while developed countries are still negative growth; banks in emerging countries have started lending, and banks in developed countries are still struggling in the bad debt, the credit recovery temporarily hopeless. This rare financial crisis, many people are accustomed to subvert the thinking. Emerging markets in the past has always been considered second-class citizens of the world, but they performed well during the crisis, exchange rate stability, financial soundness,UGG ブーツ 店舗, economic recovery quickly. Developed once the world economy's elite, a model for emerging countries, but stretched in a crisis, both exposed institutional flaws, and Zhao significant recovery inability embarrassment, most crises in emerging countries will also be required to rely on money to save their bank. Developed and emerging countries in this crisis the role of transposition, absolute mockery of history. The key to this contrast, is only the identity of the conversion between the creditor and the debtor. In the history of the emerging countries are mostly borrowing country, a huge debt burden, depressing economic growth and private investment, and periodically produce exchange rate crisis, default storm. In the past, reliance on the U.S. dollar debt, every Fed tightening, the shock wave generated in emerging countries will enlarge,アグ モカシン, forming a "United States sneezes, emerging cold" historic practice. But now the situation is different. Globalization and the bull market in commodities, so often the majority of the balance of payments improved significantly in emerging countries appear reserves surged, many emerging countries are more suddenly become a net capital exporter
。亚洲金融危机与阿根廷债务危机,为两个地区的信贷扩张打了免疫针,银行不敢过度贷款,消费者也不愿过度借贷,于是危机发生时没有它们出现重大的坏账,银行体制比较健全。反而是二十年来没有发生过债务危机,又是欧盟东扩直接受益者的东欧,在过度借贷上摔了一个跟斗,陷入了债务困境。这次金融危机中,亚洲和拉美各国的经济基本面没有出现明显的恶化,它们的货币币值得以基本稳定,美元贬值时新兴货币还大幅度升值。汇率稳,则通货膨胀稳;通货膨胀稳,则利率稳;利率稳,则经济与就业稳。由此制造出经济的良性循环。当然,商品价格迅速反弹,也救了一批依赖商品出口的这次金融危机中,亚洲和拉美各国的经济基本面没有出现明显的恶化,它们的货币币值得以基本稳定,美元贬值时新兴货币还大幅度升值。汇率稳,则通货膨胀稳;通货膨胀稳,则利率稳;利率稳,则经济与就业稳。由此制造出经济的良性循环。当然,商品价格迅速反弹,也救了一批依赖商品出口的新兴国家。新兴国家整体经济复苏情况,远好过发达国家。新兴国家的工业生产已恢复到5%的增长,而发达国家的却收缩8%;新兴国家的零售增长已超过雷曼倒闭前的水平,而发达国家则仍处负增长;新兴国家的银行已经开始借贷,而发达国家的银行仍然挣扎在坏账中,信贷复苏暂时无望。这场罕见的金融危机,颠覆了许多人们习以为常的思维。新兴市场过去一直被认为是世界的二等公民,可是它们在危机中表现出色,汇率稳定、财政健全、经济复苏迅速。发达国家曾是世界经济的精英、新兴国家的楷模,却在危机中捉襟见肘,既暴露出制度上的缺陷,又昭显着复苏无力的尴尬,最危机时还需要依靠新兴国家的资金来挽救自己的银行。发达国家与新兴国家在这场危机中的角色换位,绝对是历史的嘲弄。这种反差的关键,其实只是债权人与债务人之间的身份转换。在历史上新兴国家多是借贷国,庞大的债务负担,压抑了经济的增长和民间投资,并周期性地制造出汇率危机、违约风波。由于过去对美元债务的依赖,每次联储收紧银根,冲击波便在新兴国家中放大产生,形成“美国打喷嚏、新兴国家感冒”的历史性惯例。不过如今情况不同了。全球化和商品牛市,使多数新兴国家的经常收支出现明显的改善,外汇储备激增,不少新兴国家更摇身变成净资本输出国
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